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The German Ifo business confidence index—Germany’s main leading indicator—rose slightly in April but is still consistent with a recession, Pantheon Macroeconomics senior Europe economist Melanie Debono writes in a note. Both business confidence and the purchasing managers index have improved sharply in recent months, but still point to an economic contraction in the first quarter that extends to the second quarter, she writes. However, survey results don’t always match output levels, and for now data in construction and industry sectors suggest German gross domestic product rose in the first quarter, Ms. Debono writes….
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